Trading for 11th Nov 11 (11-11-11)

US Markets: Dow managed to post gains but closed below 12000 which is a critical level. Unless it crosses and closes above this, market will continue to experience selling pressure. Though DOW has managed to close above 20 DMA(but it closed just below 200 DMA) , both Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed below 20 DMA. Nasdaq has clearly indicated a pattern of shorting Nasdaq.
 We can continue to short this market if this crucial level is not breached on the upside.

Indian markets: All is not well with Indian markets. European affiars spooked the markets totally though Indian affairs by itself are not going good. High US$/INR above 50, continued high inflation, poor corporate results with forex losses. Markets are expected to open lower. Unless markets cross 5250, continue to short the markets. SBI and Tata steel came out with unimpressive numbers.

Major supports for Nifty 5185 (20 DMA) and 5095 ( 50 DMA)

Cautious investing

Strategy for 9th Nov 11

US Markets: Indicies continue to move up. As opined in our earlier column, DOW above 12000 attracted further buyers and ended strongly. Gold and oil are strong with Dollar index DXY losing about half percent on better prospects in Europe.

Indian markets: Indicies continue to underperform not responding to the global cues but bogged down on local news like strong inflation numbers , increasing trade deficit etc. SBI continue to attract buyers and wait anxiously for results to be announced.

Recommendations:

Apollo Hospital  CMP 575  BUY around 525  for a target of 675 ONE year
Carborundum Universal  CMP 168 BUY around 150  target 200 one year
Eicher motors  CMP 1733 BUY around 1550 target 2000 one year
Glaxo smith consumer CMP 2563 Buy around 2250 target 3000 one year

Note: Wabco India was recommended at 1345 on 22nd october It has already hit a high of 1510 yesterday clocking a gain of 15% in one month

Happy investing
                                                              

Strategy for Trading on 07 nov 2011

US Markets: DOW slipped and closed below 12000 , which is not good for markets. If it doesnot trade above 12000, market participants can go shot on the market. Many individual stocks also have exhibited bearish formations.

Short Alcoa below 10.90, American express below 51.10, Bank of america below 6.50, caterpillar 95, cisco 18, Dupont 48.70, General electric 16.5, Intel 24, Johnson & johnson 64, coco cola 67.75, Proctor & gamble 63, United tech 77.5, exxon mobil 77.5

Indian Markets: Markets couldnt hold on to the inital gains and lost but closed marginally nhigher Nifty 18 pts plus. BUY NIfty above 5300 otherwise go short.

Our individual stock recommendations hold  good.

Safe investing with stop losses.

Trading strategy for 4th Nov 11

US Markets: It was Greece, Greece all the way. G20, Greece referendum was in focus. Greece cancelled referendum avoiding suspense and markets reared and roared in approval DOW finished 200 points plus once again closing above 12000. As long as DOW holds above 12000 , we can expect to consolidate and move upwards. Except Microsoft , all dow stocks are above 20/50 DMA. Weakness should be used to buy stocks.

In my earlier post, I had recommended buying Kraft foods and walmart. Both of them have appreciated considerably. Krafts foods was the highest gainer in DOW yesterday.

Indian markets: Nifty though drifted downwards in the morning session it managed to close flat positive. Power stocks were the centre of attraction. BHEL, Tata Power, PFC, REC marched up. SBI has started to move upwards expecting results on 7th. On daily charts, above 1924 is a BUY and on weekly charts, above 1934 is a BUY. BUY SBI for decent returns and I expect SBI to go up to 2150 which should take the markets close to 5500. Most of the stocks took support on 50 DMA which enabled the index to go up in afternoon session.

BUY AXIS Bank CMP 1116 SL 1100 Target 1150
BUY Bank Nifty CMP 9783 SL 9700 Target 10000
BUY CIPLA CMP 291 SL 288 Tgt 300
Buy HDFC Bank CMP 482 SL 475 Tgt 500
BUY Hero honda CMP 2071 SL 2059 tgt 2100
BUY ICICI Bank 878 SL 874 Target 900
BUY LT 1380 SL 1374 tgt 1400
BUY ONGC 278 SL 273 TGT 300
BUY Ranbaxy 514 SL 510 tgt 525
BUY sesa goa 211 SL 208 tgt 225

Happy investing

Market strategy for 3rd November 11

US Markets: Scored sizeable gains on Fed's better outlook for the economy and better jobs data. Dow gained 178 points. But markets seem to live on a day-to-day basis on the european worries. Its now Greece's decision to face bankruptcy or take the aid accepting the conditions. Lot of divergence noticed in individual stocks movements and technical formation. Nadaq formation gives a sell signal but manages to hold just above 20 DMA at 2625. If it holds , go long on Nasdaq, otherwise go short. DOW and S&P 500 have taken support at 20 DMA and moved up. It is reasonable hence to expect markets to move up unless they vitiate 20 DMA. Maintain long positions, except Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Proctor & Gamble where u can go short.

Indian Markets: Major indicies closed flat. But formations have indicated markets are waiting to rear up. Banks that have reported results by and large maintained their net interest margins despite challenging environment. In my opinion next major trigger for the markets is likely to be SBI results on 7th Nov, which are expected to be good.

It can be reasonably expected that markets will scale 5400 in this week unless a mjor trigger to take it downwards.Most of the stocks have given only 'BUY' signal. Hence buy with stop loss limits.

Longterm Buy: CRISIL on declines CMP 968 Target 1200 ONE year

F&O REC: BUY Bank Nifty CMP 9781 SL 9692 Target 10000 ( Pl note cash levels are given)
BUY Maruti CMP 1124 SL 1100   target 1200
BUY Reliance capital CMP 366 SL 350 Target 400
BUY Tata Power CMP 102 SL 100 Target 110

Happy investing

Trading strategy for 2nd November 11

US Markets: Nothing seems to go well for the markets. MF Global filing for bankruptcy and Greece referendum have spooked the markets. In such situations, technicals dont have any relevance.

DXY US$ hit thru roof. I opined if it crosses 76.25, its not good for equity and commodity markets. Obviously markets crashed.

Longterm investors simply accumalate fundamentally good bluechips for decent gains over period of time.

Indian markets: Taking global cues, indicies are likely to seek lower levels. relatively Indian markets have held on.

I recommend for investment following shares:

ONGC, SBI, Hindalco, HDFC, TCS, Coal India, NTPC, Bajaj Auto, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda.

Safe investing

Trading strategy for Ist Nov 11

US Markets: Markets registered the best performance for oct , though on the last day Dow corrected sharply.Japanese central Bank, on strengthening of yen to record levels against US$, intervened in the currency mrket aggressively second time in the span of three months. Yen depreciated and US$ appreciated. The consequent effect and hangover of european worry, equities/commodities corrected. Markets are looking to Ben Bernake on the proposed FOMC meeting on the 'operation twist' effect and so on.
DXY above 76.25 will attract buyers and not good for equities and commodities. Banks corrected the most with Bank of America and citi bank correcting by 7%
Buy Walmart CMP 56.72 SL 56  Target 60
Buy Kraft foods CMP 35.18 SL 35 Target 37

Indian Markets: Major indicies corrected by less than one percent as against 3% gain previous day. Market will consolidate at this level before making a big move on either way. INR gained by 10 paise. FIIs were buyers. Results that came today were generally in line with expectations with Hindustan Lever was a clear winner. Stock appreciated by 7%  BPCL disappointed. Maruti opened with a gap but strengthened during the day on short covering.

Buy Recos:
 Power Finance CMP: 150 SL 145 Target 160              Two/three weeks
Container corpn CMP:  985 SL 950 target 1060
Ambuja cements: CMP  155 SL 152 Target 162
IRB Infra : CMP 164 SL 162 Target 176

BUY Hindustan Lever CMP 375 BUY around 325  target 475 ONE YEAR

Happy investing

Strategy for trading on 31st oct 2011

US Markets:  Though opened in negative, inview of bullish undertone , Dow closed in black. Inview of sharp upmove,and in overbought teritory the market will pause and consolidate before taking the next move.

Gold as opined by us found momentum and went upto 1750 and starting trading around that level.

Oil also witnessed similar trend. Euro got much wanted boost on resolution of haircut of 50% greek debt. Inview of voluntary cut taken by bondholders, it has been clarified that it is not amounting to default.

I will concentrate on individual stocks. Short Mcdonalds: CMP 93.29 SL 94 Target 90 one week Short Pfizer CMP:19.82 SL 20.50 Target 18.75 one week Short Verizon CMP: 37.63 SL38 Target 36.75 one week


Indian Markets: Buoyed by global clues makets surged Nifty and sensex by 3% Nifty closed above 5360
Dont short the markets

Short term Opportunities :

Buy:                                         CMP               SL                       Target 15 days
GAIL                                        429               420                            450
Maruti                                    1126             1090                          1200
Titan                                         217               215                           230
Lupin                                        475               470                           495
Oracle Fin Software               2090             2060                         2250
Ranbaxy                                    515               508                           535
Colgate Palmolive                    997               990                          1020
Tata Power                               102                 99                            108
Gitanjali Gems                          367              364                            390


Must Buy/hold shares in one's portolio for min one year term:

Kotak  Mahindra CMP 509 Buy on declines around 500 target  650
Mundra Port  CMP 163  Buy on declines around 160 target  200
Ultratech cement  CMP 1162 Buy on declines around 1150 target 1350

Happy investing

Strategy for 28th trading for Indian markets

US Markets:  As expected DOW is consolidating below 200 DMA (presently 11970), Nasdaq (2690) and S&P 500 (1275). Nasdaq  index technical formation indicates a hanging man, which could bring some selling. Microsoft though has closed above 20 DMA (26.50), the formation indicates further selling is waiting on breaking 20DMA. Similar hanging man formations are seen in many technology stocks like Intel, Cisco, IBM etc. similar formations are seen in many other DOW stocks such as AT&T, Verizon, Mcdonalds, Proctor & Gamble, Caterpillar etc. My surmise is bears are waiting on the sidelines. Pl join the bandwagon and short stocks mentioned above keeping strict stop losses.

US$ though threatened to move to DXY 76.60 has fallen back below 76. Watch out for 76.60 to be broken for equity markets to come down.

Gold rallied above 1660 as predicted clocking 3% on upside. Oil cooled off a little.

P.S. If Euro crisis is resolved in today's night long meeting, markets may surge.

Indian Markets: Diwali trading for an hour dont indicate much and NIFTY closed flat,positive. Big technical gap in NIFTY between 5300 and 5200 will be a strong resistance to be crossed over. Nifty is also in overbought region with 10% rise from 4700 to 5200. In my view consolidation will take place.

F&O recommendations
Sesa Goa reported huge forex losses and stock lost about 3% Short sesa goa CMP 205 SL 210 Target 195

Asian Paints SELL CMP 3070 SL 3105 Target 3000

Continue to maintain shorts on BHEL, LT , Public sector banks keeping strict SL levels. Watch out for US$/Re to go below 45.40 for markets to go up further.

Trading strategy for oct 26th 2011

US Markets: In my last post, I had surmised that markets may take a breather before crossing 200 DMA. Dow's 200 DMA was 11970 and it turned course after reaching 11940. Earning surprises, european suspense provided the trigger for the market to stop and take stock.

Gold on crossing 1660 attracted buyers and ended up 3% higher. It has found momentum to go up to 1750.
US$ strengthened a bit to 76.25 but 76.50 is the crucial level. If it crosses 76.50 it is not good for equity markets.

I dont see any reason for markets to come down drastically but undergo a healthy correction and consolidation around these levels. Correction can be used as an opportunity to buy.

Buy Dupont CMP 45 for a target of 50 SL 44. Buy JPMorgan CMP 34.5 target 38 SL 33.5
Telecom majors At& T and Verizon on downgrades have broken their 20 DMA.

Indian Markets: RBI called the shots. Unconcerned about slowdown in the economy, overly obsessed with inflation levels, RBI increased the reverse repo rate by 0.25%

Monetary policy has a very limited impact on the inflation as it is largely imported due to higher crude oil prices and weaker rupee. Instead of acting as deterrant on consumption, it acts on investment cycle. The results are going to be disastrous.

Coming to markets, leaving behind the financials, rest of the market surged to reach new level of 5200 last seen on 5th August.  5250 is a strong, multiple resistance level and it may take sometime for markets to consolidate around these levels, before conquering on 5250. But market correction and weakness should be used to buy fundamentally strong blue chips, for the present avoiding captal goods sector LT, BHEL and Public sector Banks.

Buy following index stocks on declines for a decent 10% or more appreciation from current levels: time expected  3 months

ACC  CMP  1181 Target 1300 SL 1125

Bajaj Auto CMP 1750 target  1950  Sl 1650

ITC  CMP  210  target 235 SL 200

Mahindra & Mahindra CMP 853  Target  950  SL 800

Aggressive investors can go long on these stocks in F&O but with SL levels

Wishing all investors a Happy & Prosperous Diwali.